A Predictive Model for POP Cement Prices in the Nigerian Construction Industry
K. M. Oba *
Department of Civil Engineering, Construction Engineering and Project Management, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study was aimed at formulating a model to predict the price of Plaster of Paris (POP) cement using a multiple linear regression modelling technique. The prices of POP cement were predicted between the fiscal years 2024 and 2030, given the prices between the fiscal years 2017 and 2023. Secondary data were obtained for the Interest Rates, Inflation Rates, Naira exchange rates against the US Dollar, Population growth rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates between 2017 and 2023. Primary data were obtained to investigate the prices at which POP was sold between the fiscal years 2017 and 2023. Exponential trends forecasting was used to forecast the above decision variables or factors affecting the price of POP cement between 2024 and 2030. A multiple linear regression model was derived for the prediction of the POP cement prices between the said years. The model was found fit, adequate, and of a high predictive attribute with an R2 value of 0.99. This study will help in the proactive planning of effective cost management for building construction projects in which POP cement was used. It will reduce problems and challenges of cost overrun on construction projects in the Nigerian construction industry.
Keywords: Cost Prediction, gypsum, mathematical modelling, Nigerian Construction Industry, plaster of paris
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References
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